Views from Down Underer

Ep. 65: Liberation day to liquidation day: Tariffs, market crash, and global economy

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility.  With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs.  President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it a harsh lesson in international economics.  So what happened?  In this discussion, we chat about the market dynamics and political economy of 'liberation to liquidation' week.

South Korean president removed from office, White House launched massive tariffs

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd.  Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners.  Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.

Ep. 63: Ex-Philippine president Duterte ICC arrest and RNZAF P-8 Poseidon

Former Philippine president Duterte was arrested on an ICC warrant.  What is this about and what are the implications to Philippine politics?  The P-8 Poseidon is termed as a 'once in a generation' acquisition for the RNZAF but recent news report that the servicing of the planes cannot be done in New Zealand due to absence of technical capabilities. Why?  Lastly, interesting evolution of kit/shirt sponsors of English Premier League teams in the 30 years of the creation of the league.  

Ep. 62: Update on Panama Canal deal, NZ PM Luxon's India visit, update on Ukraine-Russia

Panama canal deal by Hutchison Holdings is heavily criticised by China.  What is it all about?  NZ PM Luxon led a huge delegation to visit India and announced that both countries will negotiate a free trade deal.  US is brokering a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, what are new updates.

Ep. 61: German defense spending, India comments on postwar order, China complains about port deals

Germany plans to spend big in defense spending as US commitment to Europe weakens, India says that benefits of postwar order is exaggerated signalling the end of the international rules-based order as we know it.  China is reported to be very critical of the recent port deals by Hutchison.  Voice of America is cutting staff and funding while Canada is reassessing whether to still buy the F35s or not.

Ep. 60: Canada as canary in the coal mine? Tariffs, trade war, and Ukraine

US announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.  Canada considers this an aggressive action by the US that seeks to weaken Canada. The fallout of the Oval Office shakedown continues as US freezes support to Ukraine.  What is happening here? What is the implications to international politics?

Ep. 59: CDU tops German elections but AfD made gains; Rumble in the Oval Office

The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second.  What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance?  What does it mean for its foreign policy?  Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mineral deal, instead he got a 'shakedown' by US President Trump and VP Vance all caught on live TV.  He was asked to leave the White House not even able to enjoy a meal.  What happened?  What are the implications and fall out of this very undiplomatic live TV show straight from the White House?  

Episode 58: US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia, PLA Navy nearby, Cook Islands update

US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended.  What does it mean?  What are the implications?  PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises.  Why?  What is the point of Chinese navy presence?  And a quick update on the continuing saga of the Cook Island and China agreement.

Episode 57: Era of Stick Power in International Relations? Vance in Munich, NZ-Cook Island spat

Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway?  US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience.  NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.

Episode 56: Trump foreign policy, Gaza proposal, Panama Canal, and Malaysia's ASEAN chairmanship thus far

Busy two weeks of Trump's administration and foreign policy is no exception -- Gaza proposal, hard talk about Panama Canal, turning El Salvador as a penal colony.  Malaysia's chairing of ASEAN has been quiet and unambitious thus far, why?