Views from Down Underer

US elections 2024: crystal ball-gazing on foreign policy

We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.

US Elections 2024 -- Republicans win

The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.  

Clash of Two Gilded Ages and the US presidential election polls

We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations.  We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call.
Recommended reading list:
https://www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages/
Luebbert, Gregory M, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York, NY, 1991; online edn, Oxford Academic, 31 Oct. 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195066104.001.0001, accessed 3 Nov. 2024.
Rogowski, Ronald. 1999. Commerce and Coalitions. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203518588-26/commerce-coalitions-trade-affects-domestic-political-alignments-ronald-rogowski
 

North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, Impending 'betrayal' of Ukraine? The Age of De-population, Japan's LDP loses its majority

In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine.  We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen.  We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means.  Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.

Elon Musk giving $1M to Pennsylvania voters, Indonesian presidential inauguration, Trump works in a MacDonalds

Is Musk offering money to voters considered vote buying?  Months after the presidential election, the new Indonesian president is finally sworn in.  Donald Trump apparently worked in a MacDonald's for a day, but did he really?

Great power rivalry and implications for Southeast Asia and America losing Southeast Asia to China?

We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.

Hezbollah-Israel conflict, US strategy in the Mideast, Sikh referendum in NZ, RNZN ship sinks in Samoa

We examine the implications of the conflict in the Mideast to our region and discuss a recent essay in Foreign Affairs that calls for a change of approach to US Mideast strategy.  The Khalistan movement has supporters in NZ that are holding a referendum on Sikh independence.  Then the sad news of the sinking of the RNZN survey ship in Samoa while doing a survey of the seabed.

Asia Power index, China and changing power in East Asia talk by Prof Robert Ross of Boston College

Lowy Institute released its new Asia Power index, we discuss the method and design of this power index.  How does the construction of an index affects the rankings of countries?  

Research on Pacific maritime spaces, Harris/Trump debate, US electoral battleground states

We chat about two research papers we conducted on Pacific maritime space.  One research is about Fiji and Solomon Islands and how these two countries exercise their agency and the second paper is on fisheries and maritime security issues.  We then talk about our own impressions of the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  Lastly, we discuss a BBC article on the battleground states in this November's US presidential election.  Does issue saliency affected by the politics within these battleground states?

Indonesia-China the next stoush in the South China Sea, a possible standoff between the Global South and China and Pope Francis in Southeast Asia

Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?