Views from Down Underer

Episode 25: Shangri-La dialogue wrap up, India's surprise election result, and North Korean trash balloons

This episode begins with our impressions of the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore.  India's election results are in and Modi's party requires the support of other parties to form a majority.  What are the implications of this surprising election outcome?  North Korea has been flying trash balloons across their southern border and now a response from the South Koreans.

Episode 24: Divine Modi? Dangerous rhetoric in Indian election, Marcos Jr draws a red line, and Trump convicted

India's election is seeing dangerous rhetoric of anti-Muslim and heightened Hindu nationalism as well as the spectacular claims of Modi speaking to God.  In a speech at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has Philippine president Bongbong Marcos inadvertently drew a red line in the Philippine-China skirmishes in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea)? Did it just raise the temperature in these skirmishes?  Ex-US president Trump is now a convicted felon being found guilty of all 34 counts in the 'hush money' trial in New York. This throws another 'monkey wrench' to an already worrying campaign period leading up to the November election.  What are the implications to the legitimacy of American political institutions and future of American democracy as we know it?  Rishi Sunak is having it tough after he called for UK general election.  Is the Sunak government grasping for straws to prevent the likely wipeout?

Episode 23: Economic limits to US exceptionalism, undermining rules based order, UK election

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism.  Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period?  A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street.  Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?

Episode 22: UK to out-cooperate in foreign affairs, Putin-Xi meeting, Indian spies in Australia, spy for a mayor?

Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs.  What does it mean in action?  Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin.  Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network.  India acting like a great power?  A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...the story gets stranger.

Episode 21: Misunderstanding Asian states and Democracy, Autocracy and the State of the World

A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition.  This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia.  In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious academic journal - Democratization - the Varieties of Democracy team shares an excellent presentation of the state of world today and shows that liberal democracies are challenge.

Episode 20: Double-standard in foreign policy? Most revolutionary period in history?

Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent?  Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard?  Do values trump interest?  Or should interest dominate all international political actions? In a recent excellent episode of Freakonomics podcast program focused on a discussion with Fareed Zakaria of whether we are living in the most revolutionary period in human history.  We share our individual take on the thought-provoking episode.

Episode 19: Iran retaliates against Israel and Post-Globalization, Mercantilism 2.0, and the Three Body Problem

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate.  Will this expand the Middle East conflict?  How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region?  What does it mean for international order?  What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order?  Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump.  In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity.  US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security.  On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US.  Are we now in a post-globalization world?  Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century?  What does it mean to global peace and stability?

Episode 18: The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report and Some News Updates

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website.  We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll.  We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

Episode 17: Moscow terror attack, China's economic headaches, democracy index, and bible salesman

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US.  Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low.  China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by.  India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop.  Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.  

Episode 16: Mr. Peters goes to New Delhi and Southeast Asia and China's FM Wang Yi drops by Wellington

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia.  Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region?  China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently.  What is the significance of this meeting?