Views from Down Underer

Episode 15: Prabowo presidency in Indonesia and Taylor Swift's concerts in Singapore

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature.  What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US?  News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN politicians of Singapore not being a 'good neighbor.'  What does it say about ASEAN solidarity or it is simply an action of an entrepreneurial state?

Episode 14: AUS-NZ Ministerial meetings, Indonesian election cartoons, spy pigeons, Nevada primary

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers.  The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues.  Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creating a positive and softer image of the leading presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.  India detained a pigeon for eight months on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy...in the age of AI can this be true?  Nikki Haley lost the Nevada Republican primary to 'none of the above.'  How long will she able to stay in the race?  

Episode 13: Taiwan's 2024 elections: democracy has won, the people have spoken, now what's next

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections was successfully held on 13 January 2024.  With the world's attention focus on this election, the election returned a third presidential term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it failed to retain its legislative majority.  Taiwan will have a divided government for the next four years.  What are the implications to geopolitics, cross-Straits relations, and domestic politics?

Episode 12: Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and what to watch out for in 2024

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis threaten to add more stress to the vulnerable global supply chains and unravel the anti-inflationary economic policies of countries around the world.  A joint statement released by the White House and signed by many leading nations including New Zealand condemn the attacks on Red Sea shipping.  These attacks are mired in the bigger geopolitical events in the the Mideast and the complexities international politics.  Panelists suggest what issues they are following for 2024.

Episode 11: Biden-Xi face to face meeting ahead of APEC Summit in San Francisco: Is this a meeting of two desperados?

US President Biden and Chinese President Xi had a first ever in person meeting in three years of Biden's administration.  Sino-US relations have deteriorated since 2017 with Trump's America First and MAGA foreign policies and Biden administration has doubled down on what the Trump administration's China policy. With the weak economic performance of the Chinese economy of late and the many problems that Biden faces at home putting his re-election chances for a second term at risk, this meeting holds importance for both leaders for various reasons.  Why did it happen when it happened? What are the implications of domestic politics and domestic audience costs of this meeting? What does it mean for small states in the region?

Episode 10: Jokowi’s legacy, Indonesia’s regional leadership potential, Modi and India’s Middle East policy

The Economist published two articles that caught our attention one titled "What will Indonesia look like after Jokowi leaves?" and a second one titled "Narendra Modi has shifted India from the Palestinians to Israel."  These two countries have great potential to take up more leadership position in the Indo-Pacific but something seems to be holding them back.  What role does domestic politics play in the two countries international positioning?  What are the stimulus and constraints that explain why Indonesia and India act the way they do? 

Episode 9: New Economic Security State or New Great Power Protectionism

In the October 19th issue of Foreign Affairs, an essay about the so-called New Economic Security State explains how the Biden Administration and its national security chief conceptualizes the relationship between market, economy, and national security.  This 'new' thinking is supposed to recalibrate the excesses of globalization and faith on the market but then avoid the Cold War hard core emphasis on security over economics.  Is this 'new' thinking really new or is it a re-hash of ideas brought up in the late 1980s when the US was concerned about Japan's and Germany's economic strength?  Is security simply an alibi for great power protectionism?  Can the US shed its own DNA to implement a whole economy industrial policy?

Episode 8: NZ General Election 2023 and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza

The results of the New Zealand General Election of 14 October 2023 are in.  The incumbent Labour government was resoundingly defeated by the centre-right National Party.  National will be able to form a two-party coalition with another party to its right, ACT.  What does this mean for NZ's foreign policy, defense, and strategic policies?  The Middle East is grabbing headline news again with the Israeli-Hamas conflict.  What does it mean for the Indo-Pacific region?

Episode 7: Another one bites the dust? Prickly toes? Putin-Kim bromance? A brewing India-Canada diplomatic row?

China's defense minister Li Shangfu has not been seen and there are speculation that he has been sacked and being investigated for corruption.  This is the second disappearance and sacking of senior ministers handpicked by President Xi.  So is President Xi really the strongman that we think he is?  Ex-foreign minister of Singapore waded into the China-Taiwan issue and may have step on prickly toes.  To Russia with love and Kim Jong-un's meeting with Putin in Russian Far East, what does this mean for regional security?  And lastly, Canada and India are headbutting and a diplomatic row has resulted.  What are the implications to American (and its allies) courtship of India to join in a coalition to contain China?

Episode 6: The more the merrier: ASEAN Jakarta Summit, G20 New Delhi Summit, Xi Jinping no-show

ASEAN just concluded its Jakarta summit while Indian PM Modi is hosting the G20 summit in New Delhi.  With the geopolitical and geoeconomics tension in the region, is ASEAN still a relevant player?  While India is relishing in the limelight hosting the G20 summit one talking point is the absence of China's Xi Jinping.  Interestingly, the proliferation of bilateral meetings by middle powers, e.g., Australia and India, with Southeast Asian states on the sideline of the summit are making headlines.