Views from Down Underer

Episode 19: Iran retaliates against Israel and Post-Globalization, Mercantilism 2.0, and the Three Body Problem

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate.  Will this expand the Middle East conflict?  How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region?  What does it mean for international order?  What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order?  Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump.  In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity.  US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security.  On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US.  Are we now in a post-globalization world?  Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century?  What does it mean to global peace and stability?

Episode 18: The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report and Some News Updates

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website.  We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll.  We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

Episode 17: Moscow terror attack, China's economic headaches, democracy index, and bible salesman

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US.  Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low.  China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by.  India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop.  Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.  

Episode 16: Mr. Peters goes to New Delhi and Southeast Asia and China's FM Wang Yi drops by Wellington

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia.  Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region?  China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently.  What is the significance of this meeting?  

Episode 15: Prabowo presidency in Indonesia and Taylor Swift's concerts in Singapore

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature.  What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US?  News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN politicians of Singapore not being a 'good neighbor.'  What does it say about ASEAN solidarity or it is simply an action of an entrepreneurial state?

Episode 14: AUS-NZ Ministerial meetings, Indonesian election cartoons, spy pigeons, Nevada primary

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers.  The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues.  Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creating a positive and softer image of the leading presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.  India detained a pigeon for eight months on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy...in the age of AI can this be true?  Nikki Haley lost the Nevada Republican primary to 'none of the above.'  How long will she able to stay in the race?  

Episode 13: Taiwan's 2024 elections: democracy has won, the people have spoken, now what's next

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections was successfully held on 13 January 2024.  With the world's attention focus on this election, the election returned a third presidential term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it failed to retain its legislative majority.  Taiwan will have a divided government for the next four years.  What are the implications to geopolitics, cross-Straits relations, and domestic politics?

Episode 12: Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and what to watch out for in 2024

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis threaten to add more stress to the vulnerable global supply chains and unravel the anti-inflationary economic policies of countries around the world.  A joint statement released by the White House and signed by many leading nations including New Zealand condemn the attacks on Red Sea shipping.  These attacks are mired in the bigger geopolitical events in the the Mideast and the complexities international politics.  Panelists suggest what issues they are following for 2024.

Episode 11: Biden-Xi face to face meeting ahead of APEC Summit in San Francisco: Is this a meeting of two desperados?

US President Biden and Chinese President Xi had a first ever in person meeting in three years of Biden's administration.  Sino-US relations have deteriorated since 2017 with Trump's America First and MAGA foreign policies and Biden administration has doubled down on what the Trump administration's China policy. With the weak economic performance of the Chinese economy of late and the many problems that Biden faces at home putting his re-election chances for a second term at risk, this meeting holds importance for both leaders for various reasons.  Why did it happen when it happened? What are the implications of domestic politics and domestic audience costs of this meeting? What does it mean for small states in the region?

Episode 10: Jokowi’s legacy, Indonesia’s regional leadership potential, Modi and India’s Middle East policy

The Economist published two articles that caught our attention one titled "What will Indonesia look like after Jokowi leaves?" and a second one titled "Narendra Modi has shifted India from the Palestinians to Israel."  These two countries have great potential to take up more leadership position in the Indo-Pacific but something seems to be holding them back.  What role does domestic politics play in the two countries international positioning?  What are the stimulus and constraints that explain why Indonesia and India act the way they do?