Views from Down Underer

Episode 31: UK Foreign Minister visits India, Trump playing the race card again, Central Bank and the inflation-interest rate conundrum

UK foreign minister David Lammy visits India very early into the new Labour government term in the hopes of resetting UK-India relations and mark by a focus on the importance of trade and economics.  Trump in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists made a controversial comment on presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' Black and Indian dual identities.  Trump's comment shows an ignorance of identity code-switching.  Lastly, global central banks seem to feel that the worse of pandemic era inflation is at an end but when to start moving interest rates downward is still more art than science.  

Episode 30: Joe Biden out and Kamala Harris in, Bangladesh riots, Japan's population decline, NZ PM's low approval rating, and Olympic spying scandal

US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and VP Kamala Harris is in the race.  Is this the shot in the arm that the Democrats are looking for? Will the Democrats be able to retain the White House?  Deadly riots in Bangladesh due to student protests on job quotas.  Is there more to these riots that what meets the eye?  Japan reported a 15th year of population decline.  What are the implications of continued shrinking population?  NZ PM Luxon has been on the job less than 12 months and already his approval ratings have dropped.  Why?  Paris Olympic has started and even before the Olympic flame has been lit in the opening ceremony, a spying scandal involving the Canada's women football team has dented the idea of 'fair play' that the Olympics stand for.

Episode 29: Modi visits Putin and the continuing saga of the US election campaign season

Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Putin in Moscow.  Is India playing both sides or is this what is called 'strategic autonomy?'  Days before the Republican National Convention, there was an attempted assassination of ex-president Donald Trump who is also the Republican presidential nominee.  In the RNC convention, Trump selected a young Ohio politician who seems to be a younger version of Trump.  Meanwhile Democrats are trying to advise Biden to drop out of his reelection bid...which he did on Sunday...that surprised his VP Kamala Harris who he has endorsed as the Democratic nominee.

Episode 28: UK 2024 general election: Another one bites the dust? Or too hard to say I am sorry?

We discuss the huge Labour party victory and the calamitous Conservative party defeat in the UK general election of 2024.  

Episode 27: Fallout of the Biden/Trump debate, Russia-North Korea defense pact, China feared and US humble

We discuss the fallout of the Biden/Trump debate for our region, is Plan B now Plan A?  Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a mutual defense pact, what are the implications for regional security?  ISEAS study that re-analysed the Southeast Asian survey and inferred that China's power is recognised but feared meanwhile NYT article suggests that US is a more humble superpower in China's neighbourhood of the Asia-Pacific.

Episode 26: NZ's "independent" foreign policy? Modi's Taiwan overtures? The end of petrodollars?

What is independent about NZ's independent foreign policy?  Is it myth or reality? Is it tautological? Does using the term prevent true discussion of NZ's foreign policy direction? Modi's response to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's president drew the expected protest from the PRC.  Are there meanings behind these overtures?  Saudi and US are ending a 50-year long agreement to price Saudi oil in US dollars and Saudi's commitment to use its oil revenues to purchase US Treasury bonds.  This news barely made the headlines! What are the implications?

Episode 25: Shangri-La dialogue wrap up, India's surprise election result, and North Korean trash balloons

This episode begins with our impressions of the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore.  India's election results are in and Modi's party requires the support of other parties to form a majority.  What are the implications of this surprising election outcome?  North Korea has been flying trash balloons across their southern border and now a response from the South Koreans.

Episode 24: Divine Modi? Dangerous rhetoric in Indian election, Marcos Jr draws a red line, and Trump convicted

India's election is seeing dangerous rhetoric of anti-Muslim and heightened Hindu nationalism as well as the spectacular claims of Modi speaking to God.  In a speech at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has Philippine president Bongbong Marcos inadvertently drew a red line in the Philippine-China skirmishes in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea)? Did it just raise the temperature in these skirmishes?  Ex-US president Trump is now a convicted felon being found guilty of all 34 counts in the 'hush money' trial in New York. This throws another 'monkey wrench' to an already worrying campaign period leading up to the November election.  What are the implications to the legitimacy of American political institutions and future of American democracy as we know it?  Rishi Sunak is having it tough after he called for UK general election.  Is the Sunak government grasping for straws to prevent the likely wipeout?

Episode 23: Economic limits to US exceptionalism, undermining rules based order, UK election

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism.  Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period?  A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street.  Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?

Episode 22: UK to out-cooperate in foreign affairs, Putin-Xi meeting, Indian spies in Australia, spy for a mayor?

Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs.  What does it mean in action?  Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin.  Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network.  India acting like a great power?  A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...the story gets stranger.