Views from Down Underer

Episode 21: Misunderstanding Asian states and Democracy, Autocracy and the State of the World

A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition.  This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia.  In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious academic journal - Democratization - the Varieties of Democracy team shares an excellent presentation of the state of world today and shows that liberal democracies are challenge.

Episode 20: Double-standard in foreign policy? Most revolutionary period in history?

Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent?  Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard?  Do values trump interest?  Or should interest dominate all international political actions? In a recent excellent episode of Freakonomics podcast program focused on a discussion with Fareed Zakaria of whether we are living in the most revolutionary period in human history.  We share our individual take on the thought-provoking episode.

Episode 19: Iran retaliates against Israel and Post-Globalization, Mercantilism 2.0, and the Three Body Problem

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate.  Will this expand the Middle East conflict?  How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region?  What does it mean for international order?  What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order?  Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump.  In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity.  US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security.  On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US.  Are we now in a post-globalization world?  Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century?  What does it mean to global peace and stability?

Episode 18: The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report and Some News Updates

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website.  We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll.  We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

Episode 17: Moscow terror attack, China's economic headaches, democracy index, and bible salesman

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US.  Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low.  China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by.  India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop.  Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.  

Episode 16: Mr. Peters goes to New Delhi and Southeast Asia and China's FM Wang Yi drops by Wellington

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia.  Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region?  China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently.  What is the significance of this meeting?  

Episode 15: Prabowo presidency in Indonesia and Taylor Swift's concerts in Singapore

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature.  What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US?  News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN politicians of Singapore not being a 'good neighbor.'  What does it say about ASEAN solidarity or it is simply an action of an entrepreneurial state?

Episode 14: AUS-NZ Ministerial meetings, Indonesian election cartoons, spy pigeons, Nevada primary

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers.  The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues.  Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creating a positive and softer image of the leading presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.  India detained a pigeon for eight months on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy...in the age of AI can this be true?  Nikki Haley lost the Nevada Republican primary to 'none of the above.'  How long will she able to stay in the race?  

Episode 13: Taiwan's 2024 elections: democracy has won, the people have spoken, now what's next

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections was successfully held on 13 January 2024.  With the world's attention focus on this election, the election returned a third presidential term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it failed to retain its legislative majority.  Taiwan will have a divided government for the next four years.  What are the implications to geopolitics, cross-Straits relations, and domestic politics?

Episode 12: Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and what to watch out for in 2024

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis threaten to add more stress to the vulnerable global supply chains and unravel the anti-inflationary economic policies of countries around the world.  A joint statement released by the White House and signed by many leading nations including New Zealand condemn the attacks on Red Sea shipping.  These attacks are mired in the bigger geopolitical events in the the Mideast and the complexities international politics.  Panelists suggest what issues they are following for 2024.