Views from Down Underer

Episode 11: Biden-Xi face to face meeting ahead of APEC Summit in San Francisco: Is this a meeting of two desperados?

US President Biden and Chinese President Xi had a first ever in person meeting in three years of Biden's administration.  Sino-US relations have deteriorated since 2017 with Trump's America First and MAGA foreign policies and Biden administration has doubled down on what the Trump administration's China policy. With the weak economic performance of the Chinese economy of late and the many problems that Biden faces at home putting his re-election chances for a second term at risk, this meeting holds importance for both leaders for various reasons.  Why did it happen when it happened? What are the implications of domestic politics and domestic audience costs of this meeting? What does it mean for small states in the region?

Episode 10: Jokowi’s legacy, Indonesia’s regional leadership potential, Modi and India’s Middle East policy

The Economist published two articles that caught our attention one titled "What will Indonesia look like after Jokowi leaves?" and a second one titled "Narendra Modi has shifted India from the Palestinians to Israel."  These two countries have great potential to take up more leadership position in the Indo-Pacific but something seems to be holding them back.  What role does domestic politics play in the two countries international positioning?  What are the stimulus and constraints that explain why Indonesia and India act the way they do? 

Episode 9: New Economic Security State or New Great Power Protectionism

In the October 19th issue of Foreign Affairs, an essay about the so-called New Economic Security State explains how the Biden Administration and its national security chief conceptualizes the relationship between market, economy, and national security.  This 'new' thinking is supposed to recalibrate the excesses of globalization and faith on the market but then avoid the Cold War hard core emphasis on security over economics.  Is this 'new' thinking really new or is it a re-hash of ideas brought up in the late 1980s when the US was concerned about Japan's and Germany's economic strength?  Is security simply an alibi for great power protectionism?  Can the US shed its own DNA to implement a whole economy industrial policy?

Episode 8: NZ General Election 2023 and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza

The results of the New Zealand General Election of 14 October 2023 are in.  The incumbent Labour government was resoundingly defeated by the centre-right National Party.  National will be able to form a two-party coalition with another party to its right, ACT.  What does this mean for NZ's foreign policy, defense, and strategic policies?  The Middle East is grabbing headline news again with the Israeli-Hamas conflict.  What does it mean for the Indo-Pacific region?

Episode 7: Another one bites the dust? Prickly toes? Putin-Kim bromance? A brewing India-Canada diplomatic row?

China's defense minister Li Shangfu has not been seen and there are speculation that he has been sacked and being investigated for corruption.  This is the second disappearance and sacking of senior ministers handpicked by President Xi.  So is President Xi really the strongman that we think he is?  Ex-foreign minister of Singapore waded into the China-Taiwan issue and may have step on prickly toes.  To Russia with love and Kim Jong-un's meeting with Putin in Russian Far East, what does this mean for regional security?  And lastly, Canada and India are headbutting and a diplomatic row has resulted.  What are the implications to American (and its allies) courtship of India to join in a coalition to contain China?

Episode 6: The more the merrier: ASEAN Jakarta Summit, G20 New Delhi Summit, Xi Jinping no-show

ASEAN just concluded its Jakarta summit while Indian PM Modi is hosting the G20 summit in New Delhi.  With the geopolitical and geoeconomics tension in the region, is ASEAN still a relevant player?  While India is relishing in the limelight hosting the G20 summit one talking point is the absence of China's Xi Jinping.  Interestingly, the proliferation of bilateral meetings by middle powers, e.g., Australia and India, with Southeast Asian states on the sideline of the summit are making headlines. 

Episode 5: US-Korea-Japan leaders’ meeting, BRICS South Africa summit, Middle Power in Global Politics

US President Joe Biden hosted ROK President Yoon and Japan PM Kishida in Camp David for a trilateral summit meeting that seeks to deepen its security partnership to strengthen trilateral deterrence and contribute to long-term balance of power in East Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.  BRICS summit in South Africa added six new members to this economic forum of the non-G7 countries.  Are these evidence of greater agency of middle powers in the context of the US-China strategic competition? Why are the middle powers taking the initiative?  Can the middle powers be considered as another pole between the two poles of US and China?

Episode 4: China-Philippine tension in the South China Sea and Trump’s third indictment

The Philippines accused China's coast guard of firing water cannon at a Philippine ship supplying one of its 'outpost' in the South China Sea.  What is the background of this tension?  Is this a tit-for-tat action by China against the current Marcos' administration move away from the China-friendly foreign policy of the Duterte administration?  Former US President Trump was indicted on his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.  What are the implications of the 'mess' in domestic US politics to the Indo-Pacific region?  How will Indo-Pacific countries react according to what they see happening in the US?

Episode 3: Qin Gang canned; Blinken, Albanese, Macron and the summer South Pacific tour: What’s the buzz...tell me what’s a-happening?

Up north, Qin Gang has gone from a missing Foreign Affairs Minister of the PRC to a missing ex-Foreign Affairs Minister.  Down south, leaders and top diplomats of the West are here on a charm offensive all singing that famous Backstreet Boys line: "Don't care who you are, where you're from...as long as you love me."

Episode 2: New Zealand’s ’independent foreign policy:’ Walking cool but can it walk the line and face the ties that bind?

New Zealand PM Chris Hipkins delivered three foreign policy speeches in a short span of 10 days -- from July 7 to July 17.  Like any small state, NZ is caught in between the intensification of the US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.  As a Five Eyes member and IP4 partner of NATO, NZ is trying to balance its relations between the two great powers of US and the PRC.  Did the PM's speech work? Is NZ's independent foreign policy a case of a foreign policy that has not been tested in the post Cold War era?